Tariffs can move stock prices, but the headline tariff rate matters far less than a company’s actual exposure to it. In this article, you’ll learn how tariffs flow through costs, margins, EPS and valuations, why some U.S. and Canadian stocks can actually benefit from trade barriers, and what research covering 11,741 companies across 48 economies reveals about the surprisingly large role tariff uncertainty plays in market returns.
Tariffs have once again become one of the biggest macroeconomic variables hanging over North American financial markets.
Throughout 2026, the United States has imposed or threatened tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% across major trading partners and industries, while Canada and several other countries have responded with retaliatory measures of their own.
For both traders and investors, the obvious assumption is that tariffs are bad for stocks.
Imports become more expensive, companies face higher costs, exporters lose customers and corporate profits suffer. But stock-market data suggest the relationship is considerably more complicated.
During the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war, for example, tariff announcements produced broad declines in U.S. stock prices, but those losses were concentrated among companies that imported from China, exported to China or generated substantial sales there, such as Nike.
Yet tariffs can simultaneously benefit other stocks.
Domestic steel producers, manufacturers and suppliers may suddenly face less foreign competition.
Companies can shift supply chains. Consumers can absorb part of the cost. Governments can negotiate exemptions. And markets can also price an expected tariff into stocks months before it actually takes effect.
That means the useful question for traders and investors isn’t simply “Are tariffs good or bad for stocks?”
It’s “Which companies actually bear the cost?”
And that’s exactly what we’re exploring the following data-based PTJ article.
Quick Answer: Do Tariffs Affect the Stock Market?
Yes, but the impact varies significantly by company and industry. A 2026 IMF study of 11,741 publicly traded companies across 48 economies found highly trade-exposed firms underperformed low-exposure firms by 1.09 percentage points following the April 2025 tariff announcement, while tariff uncertainty added another 1.01 points of underperformance. Other research found targeted equity markets fell about 1.5% on the first trading day, with little additional decline afterward. The evidence suggests tariffs affect stocks, but company exposure, earnings sensitivity and uncertainty matter more than the headline tariff rate.
How Tariffs Can Impact Stock Prices
Tariffs usually affect stocks indirectly by changing company costs, earnings expectations and valuations.
Importers, exporters, low-margin firms and tariff-sensitive supply chains
Domestic producers protected from higher-priced foreign competition
Key Tariff and Stock Market Statistics
Before deciding whether tariffs are bullish or bearish for stocks, it helps to understand the scale of U.S.–Canada trade, effective tariff rates and what academic research has found about stock-market reactions.
🇨🇦 Canada–U.S. Trade
- $872.3 billion: Total U.S.–Canada goods and services trade in 2025.
- $333.6 billion: U.S. goods exports to Canada.
- $92.3 billion: U.S. services exports to Canada.
- $381.9 billion: U.S. goods imports from Canada.
- $64.5 billion: U.S. services imports from Canada.
- 71.7%: Share of Canadian merchandise exports sent to the U.S. in 2025, down from 75.9% in 2024.
- -5.8%: Decline in Canadian merchandise exports to the U.S. during 2025.
- +17.2%: Increase in Canadian exports to countries outside the U.S.
- ~85%: Estimated share of Canadian exports currently entering the U.S. tariff-free.
- 97.5%: Share of potentially affected Canadian exports estimated to be CUSMA-compliant and therefore duty-free.
- ~5.4%: Canadian government’s estimated effective U.S. tariff rate on Canadian exports.
🇺🇸 The Broader U.S. Tariff Landscape
- ~27.4%: U.S. trade-weighted statutory tariff rate by September 2025.
- Highest in more than a century: The statutory tariff rate reached levels not seen in modern U.S. trade policy.
- 176 countries: Imports from this many countries were affected by the broader tariff expansion.
- 70%+: Share of total U.S. imports represented by those countries.
- 14.1%: Approximate tariff rate actually collected, far below the headline statutory rate.
- ~49% lower: The effective collected rate was roughly half the 27.4% statutory rate.
📊 What Academic Research Says About Stocks
- 11,741 companies: Number of publicly traded firms examined in a 2026 IMF study.
- 48 economies: Geographic scope of the IMF sample.
- -1.09 percentage points: Additional cumulative underperformance for highly U.S.-trade-exposed firms versus low-exposure firms.
- -1.01 percentage points: Additional underperformance for companies highly sensitive to tariff-policy uncertainty.
- ~2.1 percentage points: Combined underperformance for firms exposed to both high trade risk and high uncertainty.
- ~20%: Share of the three-day stock-market decline among tradable firms explained by trade exposure and uncertainty following the April 2, 2025 announcement.
What Is a Tariff and What Does It Actually Do?
A tariff is essentially a tax charged when a product crosses a border.
Suppose a U.S. company imports $10 million worth of Canadian steel. If the United States imposes a 25% tariff on that steel, the importer could theoretically face an additional $2.5 million cost.
At a 50% tariff, that additional cost becomes $5 million.
But the Canadian producer does not necessarily write a $5 million cheque to the U.S. government.
The tariff is generally collected from the U.S. importer.
In the example above, the U.S. company importing Canadian steel would pay the tariff, and not the Canadian steel producer.
The economic burden can subsequently be distributed among several parties and the impacts are far more nuanced than the U.S. firm paying the import tariff.
Who Actually Pays for a Tariff?
The importer may pay the tariff at the border, but the true economic burden can be spread across several different parties.
For example, when tariffs are imposed or increased, the Canadian supplier might reduce its price. The American importer might absorb some of the cost through lower margins. The company might pay the tariff and pass the cost to customers through higher prices. The U.S. firm might even switch suppliers entirely.
Or, more likely, some combination of all of that will occur.
This is why saying “Canada has a 50% tariff” tells investors surprisingly little about an individual stock. As a headline, statements like this tends to sound very bad and strike fear into the hearts of traders and investors.
But the more useful questions are:
- How much does the U.S. company import?
- How much does it export?
- Which products are actually tariffed?
- Does CUSMA or another exemption apply?
- Can the company switch suppliers?
- Can it raise prices?
And ultimately:
How much does the tariff change expected earnings (EPS)?
How Tariffs Flow Through Earnings and Stock Valuations
For stock traders and investors, tariffs become important when they reach the income statement, not when the hit the newspapers.
Consider a hypothetical manufacturer producing:
| Metric | Before Tariff |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.0 billion |
| Cost of Goods Sold | $700 million |
| Gross Profit | $300 million |
| Gross Margin | 30% |
| Operating Expenses | $200 million |
| Operating Profit | $100 million |
Now assume tariffs increase annual input costs by $50 million and the company cannot immediately raise prices.
In that case, operating profit falls from $100 million to $50 million.
That’s only a 5% increase in costs relative to revenue, but it produces a 50% decline in operating profit.
This is one reason tariffs can create enormous stock-price reactions in low-margin businesses.
After all, a company earning a 30% operating margin can absorb additional costs much more easily than a manufacturer earning 5%.
Investors therefore shouldn’t simply ask whether a company is exposed to tariffs. They should estimate the potential impact on:
Revenue → gross margin → operating income → EPS → valuation.
How Tariff Costs Can Become a Bigger Stock-Price Problem
A relatively modest hit to earnings can create a much larger decline in valuation if investors also reduce the multiple they are willing to pay.
Expected EPS
$5.00Investors value the company at 20 times expected earnings.
EPS Falls 20%
$4.00If the valuation multiple stays unchanged, the theoretical stock value falls 20%.
Investors Pay Less
18×Greater uncertainty causes investors to assign a lower valuation multiple.
If analysts previously expected $5.00 EPS and tariff costs reduce expected earnings to $4.00, earnings have fallen by 20%.
Even if the stock maintains exactly the same 20× earnings multiple, its theoretical valuation falls from:
$5 × 20 = $100
to:
$4 × 20 = $80.
And tariffs can create a second problem. Traders and investors may decide that uncertain future earnings deserve a lower valuation multiple.
If the market simultaneously reduces the company’s multiple from 20× to 18×, the valuation becomes:
$4 × 18 = $72.
The earnings decline was 20%. But the total theoretical stock-price decline becomes 28%.
That is how relatively modest changes in operating economics can translate into much larger stock-market movements.
Retaliatory Tariffs Can Hurt Export Demand
Tariffs rarely occur in isolation. When one country imposes tariffs, its trading partners often retaliate by placing tariffs on its exports.
That creates a second transmission mechanism for stocks.
A U.S. manufacturer, for example, might initially benefit because Canadian imports become more expensive. But if Canada responds by placing a 25% tariff on the American manufacturer’s products, its Canadian customers suddenly face higher prices.
Demand can decline. The U.S. company may now need to cut prices to maintain market share. When that happens, both revenue and margins can both start to deteriorate.
The current Canada–U.S. dispute demonstrates the problem.
How Retaliatory Tariffs Can Hit Stocks Twice
A tariff war can create losses on both sides of the border as each country targets the other’s exports.
Canada already maintains counter-tariffs on approximately $51.4 billion of annual U.S. steel, aluminum and automobile imports, and as of August 2026, Ottawa has announced plans for additional retaliation following the latest U.S. measures.
This creates potential losers on both sides of the border.
Canadian exporters can lose access to competitively priced U.S. demand.
American exporters can lose Canadian customers.
And in turn. companies operating integrated North American supply chains can potentially be hit from both directions.
Tariff Wars Are Rarely One-Directional
The stock-market impact usually extends far beyond the country initially targeted by the tariff.
For traders, therefore, the relevant calculation isn’t simply:
U.S. tariff → Canadian stocks fall.
It can instead become:
U.S. tariff → Canadian exporter loses competitiveness → Canada retaliates → U.S. exporter loses competitiveness → supply chains adjust → winners and losers emerge on both sides.
That’s a much more nuanced, yet realistic explanation of how tariffs impact stock prices on both sides of the border. And, as we explain below, tariffs aren’t always bad for producers.
Some Stocks Can Actually Benefit From Tariffs
Tariffs aren’t universally bearish. In fact, creating an advantage for domestic producers is one of the central arguments behind the Trump administration‘s tariff strategy.
Suppose Canadian steel costs an American manufacturer $900 per ton while equivalent American steel costs $1,000 per ton. Without a tariff, importing Canadian steel makes economic sense.
Apply a 25% tariff and that $900 Canadian steel theoretically becomes $1,125 before considering other costs.
Now, the $1,000 American product suddenly looks cheaper. Demand can therefore shift toward the domestic producer.
In this case, the tariff can produce:
Higher domestic sales → increased capacity utilization → stronger pricing power → higher revenue → potentially higher earnings.
How Tariffs Can Benefit Domestic Producers
Tariffs can make imported goods more expensive, potentially shifting demand toward domestic alternatives.
The stock market can recognize those benefits quickly.
After the latest Canada–U.S. negotiations collapsed in August 2026, American steel producers including Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs rallied as investors anticipated continued protection from Canadian competition.
This is the intended incentive behind much of the administration’s tariff policy: make foreign production comparatively more expensive and encourage companies to purchase, manufacture or invest inside the United States instead.
But the outcome is not automatically positive for American stocks, especially from a longer-term perspective.
A domestic steel producer might benefit from tariffs on foreign steel.
But the American automaker purchasing that steel might face higher costs. The American construction company buying steel-intensive materials could face higher costs again. And in most case, all those extra costs just get passed on to the U.S. consumer.
One tariff can therefore simultaneously create a winner, loser and secondary losers inside the same country.
For traders and investors, that makes supply-chain position more important than nationality.
The Hidden Market Risk: Tariff Uncertainty
The worst part about a trade war is that nobody really knows what’s going on.
A company can model a 10% tariff. It can model a 25% tariff. It can even model a 50% or 100% tariff.
What is much harder to model is uncertainty, like a tariff that might be 10% next month, 25% three months later, suspended for 90 days, increased to 50%, exempted under a trade agreement or eliminated following negotiations.
That uncertainty matters because corporations make investment decisions years into the future. And similarly, traders and investors make their investment decision based on a company’s future earnings.
Why Tariff Uncertainty Can Be Worse Than the Tariff
Companies can model a fixed tariff. What is far harder to model is a tariff policy that keeps changing.
Known Tariff
If the tariff rate is known and expected to remain in place, management can estimate costs, pricing, margins, sourcing and expected returns on new investments.
Uncertain Tariff Policy
If tariffs may rise, fall, disappear, receive exemptions or trigger retaliation, long-term investment assumptions become much harder to trust.
Imagine a company considering a $2 billion factory expected to operate for 30 years. Management can calculate whether the project makes sense under a permanent 25% tariff.
- But what if the tariff could disappear next year?
- What if the next administration changes the policy?
- What if retaliation makes exports from the new U.S. factory more expensive?
- What if a trade agreement changes the economics before construction is finished?
Waiting suddenly has value. Instead of deploying $2 billion immediately, management can delay the investment until the policy environment becomes clearer.
Academic evidence suggests this channel is significant.
Research examining the 2018–2019 U.S.–China trade war estimated that tariff actions would reduce the investment growth rate of publicly listed U.S. companies by approximately 1.9 percentage points by the end of 2020.
A 2026 IMF study provides even stronger evidence that markets price uncertainty independently from direct trade exposure.
Highly uncertainty-sensitive firms underperformed low-sensitivity companies by approximately 1.01 percentage points around the April 2025 tariff shock—even after researchers controlled for direct U.S. trade exposure.
The same phenomenon worked in reverse when tariff uncertainty decreased.
After the April 9 tariff pause, highly trade-exposed companies rebounded approximately 0.52 percentage points more than low-exposure companies, while highly uncertainty-sensitive firms gained approximately 0.53 percentage points more.
Markets weren’t simply pricing tariffs. They were pricing certainty about tariffs.
For traders and investors, this distinction may be one of the most important lessons of a trade war.
Canada Vs. the United States: A Real-World Tariff Experiment
Few countries provide a better case study than Canada and the United States.
The two economies conducted approximately $872 billion in goods and services trade during 2025, and Canada remains one of America’s largest trading partners.
Canada is even more dependent on the relationship. Approximately 71.7% of Canadian merchandise exports went to the United States in 2025.
Yet even this enormous exposure doesn’t mean every Canadian stock should decline whenever Trump announces a Canadian tariff.
CUSMA changes the calculation dramatically.
Canadian government estimates indicate approximately 85% of Canadian exports currently enter the United States tariff-free. Among Canadian goods potentially covered by the U.S. IEEPA tariffs, approximately 97.5% are CUSMA compliant and enter duty-free.
At the same time, several major sectors remain exposed.
For instance, the United States has maintained tariffs reaching 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum, while autos, lumber and other industries have faced separate duties.
Canada–U.S. Tariffs: The Headline vs. the Real Exposure
Canada is heavily tied to the U.S. economy, but CUSMA exemptions mean headline tariff rates can dramatically overstate the impact on Canadian stocks.
On August 21, 2026, after Canada–U.S. negotiations collapsed, the United States imposed another 50% tariff on approximately $20 billion of Canadian goods.
That sounds enormous. But those affected goods represent only around 5% of Canada’s exports to the United States.
Three days later, President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Canadian-made cars, trucks and automotive parts to 50% beginning January 1, 2027.
That announcement is potentially much more consequential because automotive manufacturing represents a deeply integrated North American supply chain.
The market’s response illustrates the complexity.
American automakers including Ford and General Motors declined following the latest auto threat even though the tariff was supposedly designed to protect U.S. industry.
Higher costs and supply-chain disruption can hurt American manufacturers even when the tariff targets Canadian imports.
Meanwhile, American steel producers rallied following the breakdown of trade negotiations because continued tariffs protect them from Canadian competition.
Same trade war. Same tariff policy. Opposite stock-market implications.
That’s the central lesson for traders and investors:
Tariffs aren’t simply good or bad. It depends on how a company is connected with its international counterparts.
Tariff Rates Don’t Tell Investors Which Stocks Will Win
A tariff table can tell investors where to start looking, but it can’t tell them whether to buy or sell a stock.
During the modern U.S. tariff expansion, headline rates across trading partners have ranged from roughly 10% to 40%+, while sector-specific duties have reached 50% in industries including metals.
But effective rates can be substantially lower. In September 2025, America’s trade-weighted statutory tariff rate was approximately 27.4%, while the actual tariff rate collected was approximately 14.1%.
That’s nearly a 50% difference between the headline rate and what was actually paid.
For an investor analyzing a tariff-exposed stock, the better framework is therefore:
How Investors Should Analyze Tariff Risk
The headline tariff rate is only the starting point. These variables determine how much a tariff could actually affect earnings and stock prices.
This framework also explains why a 10% tariff could potentially matter more to one stock than a 50% tariff matters to another.
A company with thin margins, concentrated foreign suppliers and limited pricing power could suffer severely from a relatively small tariff.
Meanwhile, a high-margin company with diversified suppliers, exemptions and strong pricing power might barely notice a much larger headline tariff.
What Traders and Investors Should Actually Watch During a Tariff War
Academic research suggests markets can price tariff information extremely quickly.
A 2026 study examining a U.S. tariff threat against eight European NATO countries found that affected equity markets underperformed non-targeted markets by approximately 1.5% on the first trading day.
The cumulative abnormal loss reached approximately 1.6% over three days.
In other words, almost the entire adjustment happened immediately during the first day of open market trading.
There wasn’t a continuous decline simply because tariffs remained a threat.
This has an important implication for traders:
Knowing that tariffs are bad isn’t an edge if the market already knows they’re bad.
Instead, investors should watch for changes in expectations.
- Was the tariff larger than expected?
- Did a company receive an exemption?
- Did management quantify its expected earnings impact?
- Can it pass costs through to customers?
- Did retaliation target one of its largest export markets?
- Did a trade agreement suddenly reduce uncertainty?
- Did management cut capital expenditures?
- Did analysts reduce EPS estimates?
Those changes can affect stocks because they alter information the market uses to estimate future cash flows. The announcement itself matters, but headline only has a major impact when it changes what investors previously believed.
Conclusion – Import Tariffs Vs. The Stock Market
Tariffs affect stock prices, but not through a simple equation where higher tariffs automatically equal lower stock prices.
They alter costs, margins, demand, competitive positioning, capital allocation and expectations about future earnings.
Some companies lose. Some companies benefit. Others barely notice.
Ultimately, tariffs can send stocks lower and others higher. But the fact is the market distinguishes between these companies remarkably quickly. And increasingly, research suggests uncertainty itself matters almost as much as the tariff.
For traders and investors navigating the Canada–U.S. trade war, that makes the headline tariff percentage only the beginning of the analysis.
The more useful question will always be: Who actually bears the cost—and what does that do to earnings?
The headline tariff tells you what happened politically. But asking more specific question about a company’s tariff exposure and sensitivity is what tells you what might happen to the stock.
If you want to go deeper:
- Explore the Trading Statistics Hub to understand how different sectors behave across market cycles
- Study real setups inside the Trade Reviews section
- Learn the framework behind high-probability setups in the Post-Earnings Momentum Strategy
This is how you turn raw market data into repeatable trading edge.
More Trading Statistics…
Frequently Asked Questions About Tariffs and Stocks
Do tariffs affect stock prices?
Yes. Academic research has repeatedly found measurable stock-market reactions to tariff announcements. However, the effects are highly uneven. Companies with greater import, export or foreign-market exposure generally experience larger reactions than companies with limited exposure.
Do tariffs make stocks go down?
Not necessarily. Tariffs can hurt companies facing higher input costs or weaker export demand while benefiting domestic competitors protected from cheaper foreign products. One tariff can therefore push stocks in the same industry in opposite directions.
Why do stocks fall when tariffs are announced?
Stocks generally fall when tariffs cause investors to reduce expectations for future earnings or increase the risk attached to those earnings. Higher input costs, retaliation, weaker demand and uncertainty can all reduce expected corporate cash flows.
Can tariffs increase a company’s earnings?
Yes. If tariffs make a foreign competitor’s products substantially more expensive, domestic producers can gain market share, increase production or potentially charge higher prices. American steel producers are a useful example of companies that can benefit from protection against foreign competition.
Which stocks are most vulnerable to tariffs?
Companies with low profit margins, concentrated international supply chains, substantial foreign revenue, limited pricing power and few alternative suppliers can be particularly vulnerable. Investors should examine actual company-level exposure rather than simply the company’s country or sector.
Which Canadian stocks are most exposed to U.S. tariffs?
Canadian companies deriving significant revenue from U.S. exports in tariffed industries are generally more directly exposed. Steel, aluminum, automobiles, lumber and other manufacturing industries have been among the major areas affected during the current dispute. However, CUSMA compliance and product-specific exemptions can dramatically change individual-company exposure.
Which U.S. stocks can be hurt by tariffs on Canada?
American manufacturers relying on Canadian raw materials, components or integrated cross-border supply chains can experience higher costs even though the tariff is technically imposed on Canadian goods. Automakers provide one of the clearest examples because components can cross the Canada–U.S. border multiple times during production.
Should I pull my money out of the stock market because of tariffs?
Tariffs alone are generally not enough information to justify abandoning the stock market. Research shows their effects vary significantly by company, sector and exposure, while markets often price tariff announcements extremely quickly. Investors should instead evaluate whether tariffs materially change the earnings outlook, valuation or long-term investment thesis of the companies they own.
Who benefits from Trump’s tariffs?
Domestic companies competing directly against tariffed foreign products can benefit if tariffs make imported alternatives more expensive. U.S. steel producers, for example, can benefit from tariffs on Canadian or foreign steel. But downstream American manufacturers purchasing that steel may simultaneously face higher costs. The effect depends on where a company sits in the supply chain.
Why can tariff uncertainty hurt stocks even before tariffs take effect?
Companies make factories, hiring, acquisitions and supply-chain investments based on expected future returns. When tariff policy changes frequently, management may delay those investments. Research on the 2018–2019 trade war estimated tariff actions would reduce investment growth among listed U.S. companies by approximately 1.9 percentage points, while 2026 IMF research found uncertainty sensitivity independently affected stock-market returns.
Can stocks recover even if tariffs remain in place?
Yes. Stocks trade on changes in expectations rather than simply whether a tariff exists. If investors initially expect a 50% tariff and a negotiated agreement reduces it to 25%, an affected stock could rally even though a substantial tariff remains.
Are higher tariffs always worse for stocks?
No. The headline rate alone can be misleading. America’s statutory tariff rate reached approximately 27.4% in September 2025, while the effective rate actually collected was around 14.1%. Exemptions, trade agreements, sourcing changes and product classifications can dramatically reduce actual exposure.
How quickly does the stock market react to tariff news?
Potentially within a single trading session. A 2026 study examining tariff threats against eight countries found approximately 1.5% abnormal losses on the first trading day and roughly 1.6% cumulatively after three days, suggesting nearly the entire adjustment occurred immediately.
What should investors look at when analyzing tariffs?
Focus on company-specific numbers: percentage of revenue generated in affected markets, percentage of input costs imported, effective tariff rates, gross and operating margins, pricing power, alternative suppliers, CUSMA or other trade-agreement eligibility, management’s estimated tariff costs, retaliation exposure and changes to EPS guidance.
References
Beyer, R. C. M., Tong, H., & Zhou, X. (2026). Trade policy shocks and corporate valuations: Disentangling trade and uncertainty channels (IMF Working Paper No. 2026/070). International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042383.001
Department of Finance Canada. (2026). Briefing binder for the Minister of Finance and National Revenue and the Deputy Minister of Finance: Standing Committee on Finance—Bill C-15. Government of Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/corporate/transparency/briefing-materials/2026/c15-eng.html
Export Development Canada. (2026). U.S. tariffs: Costs for Canadian exporters. https://www.edc.ca/en/article/us-tariffs-costs.html
Flaaen, A., & Pierce, J. R. (2019). Disentangling the effects of the 2018–2019 tariffs on a globally connected U.S. manufacturing sector (Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.086
Gopinath, G., & Neiman, B. (2026). The incidence of tariffs: Rates and reality (NBER Working Paper No. 34620). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w34620
International Monetary Fund. (2025). World economic outlook: A critical juncture amid policy shifts. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
Reuters. (2026, August 21). U.S. hits Canadian goods with 50% tariffs after trade talks fail. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-canadian-trade-teams-meet-again-tariffs-deadline-looms-2026-08-21/
Reuters. (2026, August 22). Canada to retaliate for U.S. tariffs, worsening ties after talks fail. https://www.reuters.com/business/carney-says-new-canadian-tariffs-us-goods-will-come-into-effect-september-8-2026-08-22/
Reuters. (2026, August 24). Trump threatens 50% tariffs on all cars and trucks from Canada amid trade fight. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-says-he-will-raise-tariffs-all-cars-trucks-50-amid-canada-trade-spat-2026-08-24/
Statistics Canada. (2026, February 19). Canadian international merchandise trade, December 2025. Government of Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260219/dq260219a-eng.htm
Statistics Canada. (2026). Recent developments in the Canadian economy: Spring 2026. Government of Canada. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/pub/36-28-0001/2026004/article/00005-eng.htm
Suwanprasert, W. (2026). Stock market responses to conditional tariff threats: Evidence from the Greenland tariffs. Finance Research Letters, 101, 110029. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2026.110029
United States Trade Representative. (2026). Canada. Executive Office of the President of the United States. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/americas/canada
Waugh, M. E. (2019). The consumption response to trade shocks: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war (NBER Working Paper No. 26353). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w26353
Additional Academic Research
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2019). The impact of the 2018 tariffs on prices and welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187–210. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.33.4.187
Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. E. (2020). Who’s paying for the U.S. tariffs? A longer-term perspective. AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110, 541–546. https://doi.org/10.1257/pandp.20201018
Fajgelbaum, P. D., Goldberg, P. K., Kennedy, P. J., & Khandelwal, A. K. (2020). The return to protectionism. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 1–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz036
Huang, Y., Lin, C., Liu, S., & Tang, H. (2023). Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the U.S.-China trade war. Journal of International Economics, 145, 103811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103811
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