PTJ Historical Risk Tool
Post-Earnings Reversal Risk Analyzer
Enter the direction, size of the first-hour earnings move, and whether price broke out on the hourly chart. The analyzer compares the setup with all 199 PTJ observations and shows how much adverse excursion historically followed similar setups.
Historical reversal-risk tier
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Similar historical setups
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Average MAE—
Median MAE—
MAE ≥10%—
MAE ≥15%—
How often did similar setups suffer this much adverse excursion?
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Closest historical matches
| Ticker | Similarity | 1H Move | Breakout | MAE | MFE | EOD |
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Important: This is a historical risk comparison, not a forecast or trading recommendation. MAE means maximum adverse excursion after the hourly earnings candle closed. A 10% MAE rate means the share of comparable historical setups that moved at least 10% against the setup direction at some point during the measured period.
