The PTJ MFE Calculator uses historical post-earnings momentum data to show how far similar stocks moved after the close of their first hourly earnings candle.
Start by measuring the 1-hour price change on the stock reaction you’re watching, enter the direction, first-hour percentage move, and whether the stock produced an hourly breakout.
The calculator will compare your setup with similar historical trades and show the average and median Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE), sample size, and historical target-hit rates.
Maximum Favorable Excursion measures the largest favorable move in the direction of the first-hour earnings move, from the hourly candle close during the following trading session.
At the bottom of the calculator, you can also explore historical similar setups, we have tracked in our post-earnings momentum database.
*Research Tool Disclaimer: This calculator summarizes historical results from the Paper Trading Journal post-earnings dataset. Results are provided for educational and research purposes only and are not predictions, investment advice, trading recommendations, or guarantees of future performance.
Paper Trading Journal Data Tool
Historical MFE Calculator
Enter the direction and size of the first hourly earnings move, then tell us whether price broke out on the hourly chart. The calculator compares the setup with 199 completed post-earnings observations in the PTJ dataset.
Historical Average MFE
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Choose your setup characteristics to calculate the historical profile.
Sample Quality
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The rating is based only on the number of matching historical observations.
How Often Did Similar Setups Reach These MFE Levels?
Closest Historical Matches
| Ticker | 1-Hour Move | Breakout | MFE |
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Important: MFE is the maximum favorable excursion observed after the hourly earnings candle closed; it is not realized return and is not a forecast. Historical results do not guarantee future performance. This calculator is for research and educational purposes only, not financial advice.
How to Read the Results
The calculator groups similar setups by direction, first-hour move range, and hourly breakout status. It then measures how those historical setups performed after the first hourly earnings candle closed.
Average and median MFE show how far comparable stocks moved in the favorable direction, while the +5%, +9%, +10%, +15%, and +20% figures show how often those levels were reached historically.
The results will also show you a handful of similar historical setups from the database, which you can search for below. Unfortunately, we don’t have case studies for every setup in the PTJ databse.
However, by searching for similar historical setups, you can learn about how stock often react to earnings and how to properly exploit that price action.
Historical Setup Explorer
Search a stock ticker to browse every chart and image from its PTJ case study without leaving this page.
Want to dig deeper? Once the calculator identifies similar historical setups, visit the Case Studies page or use the search bar on the Paper Trading Journal homepage to look up the stocks shown in your results. You may find detailed case studies, trade reviews, or research articles examining exactly how those post-earnings setups played out.
Calculator Limitations
This is a historical research tool, not a prediction model. Similar setups can behave very differently depending on earnings results, guidance, market conditions, volatility, short interest, liquidity, and other factors.
Some combinations also have small sample sizes. MFE represents the maximum favorable move that occurred — not necessarily the profit a trader could have captured.
Disclaimer
This calculator and all information on PaperTradingJournal.com are provided for educational and informational purposes only and do not constitute investment, financial, or trading advice.
Historical results do not guarantee future performance. Trading involves risk, including the possible loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and make trading decisions based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
