Based on 109 completed post-earnings momentum setups, PTJ’s 2026 data shows that the strongest trades weren’t necessarily the stocks making the biggest initial moves. Setups moving 7%–12% produced an 81.6% favorable next-day EOD rate, while 20%+ moves averaged just 8.07% MFE. Our strongest bullish subset—combining a 7%–12% initial move, hourly/4-hour breakout confirmation, and fundamental alignment—averaged 16.59% MFE, with 77.8% hitting a +9% target before a -5% stop.

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What separates an ordinary earnings mover from an A+ post-earnings momentum setup?

At Paper Trading Journal, I have been attempting to answer that question, not just based on my experience, but with real, cold, hard data. So far, my 2026 Post-Earnings Momentum Tracker currently contains 109 completed setups with full next-day outcome data.

Rather than simply recording whether stocks went up or down after earnings, we track the size of the initial hourly move, technical breakouts, EPS and revenue surprises, guidance, short interest, maximum favorable excursion (MFE), maximum adverse excursion (MAE), and next-day performance.

More importantly, we evaluate these stocks specifically as post-earnings momentum trades.

Below, I break down the data I’ve collected so far in 2026 to determine what criteria predict the strongest momentum breakout trades with the highest degree of probability.

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Quick Answer: What is the most accurate momentum indicator?

For post-earnings momentum trading specifically, our data suggests there is no single most accurate indicator. The strongest setups combine a controlled initial earnings move, fundamental alignment, and technical breakout confirmation. Bullish setups have performed particularly well after 7%–12% initial moves, while bearish setups have favored 5%–10% declines. Overall, this combination of price action, fundamentals, and technical structure has been more useful than standalone indicators like RSI or MACD.

Key Statistics – The Best Post-Earnings Momentum Setups

• 109 completed post-earnings momentum setups were analyzed: 64 bullish and 45 bearish.
• 11.06% average MFE across all completed setups.
• 63.3% of all setups produced a favorable next-day EOD outcome.
• 7%–12% initial moves produced an 81.6% favorable EOD rate and 11.93% average MFE.
• Bullish 7%–12% setups averaged 13.07% MFE with an 84.2% favorable EOD rate.
• Bearish 5%–10% setups averaged 10.96% MFE with an 87.5% favorable EOD rate.
• 20%+ initial moves averaged just 8.07% MFE and had a 41.2% favorable EOD rate.
• EPS-aligned setups averaged 12.11% MFE versus 6.29% when EPS opposed the trade direction.
• Revenue-aligned setups had a 78.6% favorable EOD rate, compared with just 33.3% when revenue opposed the trade.
• The strongest bullish subset—7%–12% initial move + hourly/4H breakout + fundamental alignment—averaged 16.59% MFE, with 77.8% hitting +9% before -5% and 88.9% finishing EOD favorably.

PTJ’s Data & Methodology

To identify what separates an average post-earnings move from an A+ momentum setup, we’ve been systematically tracking earnings reactions throughout 2026.

Rather than simply measuring whether a stock rises or falls after earnings, our dataset records, sector and short interest, compares initial price reaction, technical structure, the fundamental catalyst, and subsequent price action to determine which characteristics are most consistently associated with continued momentum.

For every trade setup, our entry benchmark is always the close of the first hourly earnings candle. Everything that happens before that point establishes the setup; everything afterward determines whether there was actually momentum left to trade.

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Across the 109 completed setups, we tracked:

• 64 bullish setups
• 45 bearish setups
• 11.06% average MFE (maximum favorable excursion)
• 42.2% hit a +9% target before hitting a 5% stop loss
• 63.3% favorable next-day EOD rate

After analyzing our data, several characteristics are beginning to separate our strongest post-earnings momentum setups from the rest. And importantly, while we trade both long and short setups in the same way, the best criteria are not necessarily identical for long and short trades.

That said, let’s jump into one of the most important criteria for a post-earnings momentum setup: the initial price reaction.

Look for a Strong Move—But Not an Extreme One

The size of the first hourly earnings move has become one of the most useful variables in our dataset.

Intuitively, traders might assume that a 20% or 30% earnings move demonstrates more momentum than a stock moving 8% or 10%. But based on our data so far, those moves are often closer to exhaustion than continuation.

For post-earnings momentum trading, however, there is another important variable to consider:

How much momentum remained after the first hour?

Our results show a clear deterioration among the most extended stocks.

The 20%+ group produced the weakest average MFE, target rate, and next-day continuation rate of the four major groups. In fact, the 20% group’s average MFE was approximately 35% lower than the 15%-20% group.

Stocks moving less than 20% initially averaged 11.62% MFE, versus only 8.07% for stocks already extended by 20% or more.

That gives us an important distinction:

Existing momentum is not the same thing as remaining momentum.

For our strategy, we aren’t trying to capture the initial earnings reaction. We are trying to identify stocks with enough confirmation to establish momentum while still leaving room for continuation.

Key Takeaway: The 7%–12% Range is the Sweet Spot

One range has been particularly interesting. Among 38 completed setups with an initial move between 7% and 12%, we recorded:

• 11.93% average MFE
• 52.6% +9% target rate
• 81.6% favorable next-day EOD rate
• 7.21% average direction-adjusted EOD move

The favorable EOD rate is particularly notable compared with 63.3% for the entire dataset.

But the optimal range also appears to differ somewhat between longs and shorts.

Our 19 bullish 7%–12% setups produced a 13.07% average MFE and 84.2% favorable EOD rate. Meanwhile, for bearish setups, the 5%–10% range was particularly effective. Sixteen short setups produced a 10.96% average MFE and 87.5% favorable EOD rate.

Our data therefore suggests that the ideal initial earnings reaction may be large enough to demonstrate institutional conviction, but not so large that the trade is already excessively extended.

And, while it’s hard to pinpoint any exact number that works best, moves between 7% and 12% often produced the highest MFEs based on our data.

Make Sure the Fundamentals Support the Trade Direction

Price ultimately determines whether a trade works, but our data increasingly suggests that the reason behind the earnings reaction matters too. In our dataset, we classify each setup according to whether the reported fundamentals and initial earnings candle agree.

For a bullish trade, strong EPS, revenue, or guidance generally supports the move. For a bearish trade, misses or deteriorating forward expectations provide the corresponding bearish confirmation.

Across 70 fundamentally aligned setups, average MFE reached 11.62%, compared with 10.06% when fundamentals and price did not agree.

The difference becomes considerably larger when we examine the underlying EPS and revenue data individually.

Among the completed setups with numerical EPS data:

Revenue results also produced a remarkably similar result. When revenue aligned with the trade direction, average MFE reached 11.92% and 78.6% of setups finished the following session favorably.

When revenue contradicted the trade, average MFE fell to 6.33%, while only 33.3% finished favorably.

Even more interestingly, the 23 setups where both EPS and revenue aligned with the direction of the trade produced:

• 12.06% average MFE
• 47.8% +9% target rate
• 78.3% favorable EOD rate
• 7.74% average direction-adjusted EOD move

None of this means an earnings beat is automatically bullish or a miss automatically bearish. What matters in our data is whether the reported fundamentals support the direction of the post-earnings trade.

Instead, what matters is alignment between the numbers and the direction we are trading. That alignment provides another added layer of confirmation when scanning for high-quality momentum setups.

Look for Technical Confirmation Across Multiple Timeframes

The initial move tells us that traders are reacting to the earnings report. The earnings results tell us whether the fundamentals support that price reaction or not.

A breakout tells us that the reaction may be changing the stock’s broader technical structure. That’s why another important metric we track is whether a move breaks above prior resistance or below key support levels on multiple timeframes.

We track breakouts across hourly, 4-hour, and daily charts, and technical confirmation has been particularly useful for bullish setups.

Among our bullish trades with 4-hour breakout confirmation, average MFE reached 11.72%, while 53.8% hit our +9% target before falling 5%.

Bullish setups that also produced a daily breakout recorded a 61.1% +9% target rate, compared with 51.6% across all bullish setups.

The relationship has been less straightforward among shorts, which is why we don’t want to simply turn our long checklist upside down.

So far, our data suggests that multi-timeframe breakout confirmation deserves more weight when evaluating bullish post-earnings momentum setups, while initial extension and fundamental support may be particularly important when evaluating shorts.

Mini Case Study: BLMN — Fundamental and Technical Alignment

Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) provides one of the cleanest recent examples of multiple criteria aligning.

The stock’s first hourly earnings candle gained 11.78%, placing it almost perfectly within the 7%–12% range that has performed particularly well among our bullish setups.

Fundamentally, BLMN reported an EPS beat of 39.28% and revenue beat of 2.09%, while its full-year guidance was also bullish.

Technically, the earnings move produced both an hourly and 4-hour breakout.

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In other words, price, fundamentals, and technical structure were all pointing in the same direction.

And the result turned out to be one of the strongest trades in our dataset.

From the hourly closing price, BLMN produced a 24.95% maximum favorable excursion, experienced only 0.50% MAE, hit the +9% target before the -5% stop, and ultimately finished the following session 17.47% above the hourly close.

BLMN illustrates almost exactly what our developing A+ bullish profile looks like: a strong but controlled initial move combined with fundamental and multi-timeframe technical confirmation.

Mini Case Study: PLTR — Strong Numbers Confirm the Breakout

Palantir (PLTR) produced a remarkably similar setup. Its initial hourly earnings candle gained 12.05%, accompanied by an hourly and 4-hour breakout.

The earnings fundamentals also supported the move. PLTR beat EPS expectations by 17.14%, beat revenue estimates by 7.18%, and provided strongly bullish forward guidance.

Once again, the technical and fundamental signals agreed.

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After the first hourly candle closed, PLTR went on to produce another 16.68% MFE while experiencing only 2.15% MAE.

The trade hit our +9% target before the -5% stop and eventually finished the following session 15.36% above the hourly closing price.

Like BLMN, PLTR demonstrates why the size of the remaining move matters more to our strategy than simply measuring the initial earnings gap.

The stock had already gained approximately 12%, but the combination of fundamentals and technical confirmation helped identify that substantial momentum remained.

Mini Case Study: RDDT — When Price Overrules the Fundamentals

Reddit (RDDT) demonstrates the other side of the equation. The stock’s first hourly earnings candle fell 8.05%, producing an hourly technical breakdown and putting the stock directly inside the range that has performed particularly well among our bearish setups.

But unlike BLMN and PLTR, the fundamentals did not support the trade. RDDT beat EPS estimates by 26.26%, beat revenue estimates by 8.04%, and provided strong bullish guidance.

It was therefore a technically valid bearish momentum setup occurring against bullish fundamental data.

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Initially, price won. RDDT continued lower and eventually produced a 17.55% maximum favorable excursion from the hourly close, easily reaching the +9% target before the -5% stop.

At its next-day close, the stock remained 14.23% below the original hourly closing price.

However, our tracker also recorded that the stock continued lower before eventually reversing higher.

RDDT is important precisely because it doesn’t fit the perfect A+ template.

Fundamental alignment improves probabilities in our dataset, but it is a filter—not a guarantee. Strong price momentum can occasionally overpower seemingly contradictory earnings data, particularly over short trading horizons.

Combining the Criteria: Our Strongest Bullish Subset

The real value of these criteria becomes apparent when we combine them. We isolated bullish setups meeting three conditions:

1. 7%–12% initial hourly move
2. Hourly and 4-hour breakout
3. Fundamentals aligned with the move

Only nine completed trades currently meet all three requirements, so this remains a small sample. But their performance, as shown below, has been exceptional.

The final nine setups produced a 16.59% average MFE, while seven of nine hit +9% before -5%. This is currently the closest thing our data has produced to a measurable A+ bullish post-earnings momentum setup.

We cannot draw definitive conclusions from nine trades. But the progressive improvement as additional criteria are applied makes this an extremely interesting subset to continue tracking.

Conclusion – What Does an A+ Post-Earnings Momentum Setup Look Like?

After 109 completed setups, we aren’t ready to establish an immutable trading formula. But we are beginning to develop a clearer profile of what criteria are associated with stronger momentum moves.

For bullish post-earnings momentum trades, our strongest setups tend to feature:

• An initial move of roughly 7%–12%
• Hourly and preferably 4-hour technical breakouts
• EPS, revenue, and/or guidance supporting the move
• Fundamental and technical alignment
• Enough remaining momentum after the first-hour close

Our strongest bearish post-earnings momentum trades look somewhat different.

So far, our data favors:

• A controlled initial decline, particularly around 5%–10%
• Fundamental weakness supporting the selloff when available
• Technical confirmation of the breakdown
• Avoiding excessively extended initial reactions
• Enough remaining downside to justify entering after the first hour

And that may be the most important lesson from the entire study. The strongest post-earnings momentum setup isn’t necessarily the stock making the biggest earnings move.

In post-earnings momentum trading, the best setups aren’t defined by the biggest moves—they’re defined by the strongest alignment between price, fundamentals, and technical structure.

If you want to go deeper:

• Explore the Trading Statistics Hub to understand how different sectors behave across market cycles
• Study real setups inside the Trade Reviews section
• Learn the framework behind high-probability setups in the Post-Earnings Momentum Strategy

This is how you turn raw market data into repeatable trading edge.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Post-Earnings Momentum Setups

What is a post-earnings momentum setup?

A post-earnings momentum setup occurs when a stock makes a significant move following an earnings report and shows signs that the move could continue. In our strategy, we wait for the first hourly earnings candle to close before establishing our entry benchmark. This allows the initial earnings reaction to develop before evaluating whether enough momentum remains for a continuation trade.

What makes a strong post-earnings momentum setup?

Based on our 2026 data, the strongest setups tend to combine a controlled initial price move, fundamental alignment, and technical breakout confirmation. For bullish trades, our strongest subset combined a 7%–12% initial move, hourly and 4-hour breakout confirmation, and fundamentals supporting the move. Those nine setups averaged 16.59% MFE, with 77.8% hitting a +9% target before a -5% stop.

How large should an initial post-earnings move be?

Bigger isn’t necessarily better. Among our completed setups, stocks moving 20% or more during the initial hourly candle averaged only 8.07% MFE, compared with 11.62% for moves below 20%. The 7%–12% range has been particularly interesting, producing an 11.93% average MFE and an 81.6% favorable next-day EOD rate.

Are the best post-earnings setups different for long and short trades?

Our data suggests they can be. Bullish setups moving 7%–12% initially produced a 13.07% average MFE and 84.2% favorable EOD rate. For bearish setups, initial declines of 5%–10% produced a 10.96% average MFE and an 87.5% favorable EOD rate. These results suggest long and short setups shouldn’t necessarily be evaluated using identical criteria.

Do EPS and revenue beats create stronger momentum?

Not necessarily. What appears to matter more is whether EPS and revenue results align with the direction of the trade. EPS-aligned setups produced a 12.11% average MFE and 80.0% favorable EOD rate, while EPS-opposed setups averaged only 6.29% MFE and a 38.9% favorable EOD rate. A bearish setup, therefore, may benefit from an earnings miss just as a bullish setup may benefit from a beat.

Does a stock need strong fundamentals for post-earnings momentum to continue?

No. Fundamental alignment has improved probabilities in our dataset, but it isn’t a requirement or guarantee. RDDT provides a good counterexample: despite beating EPS and revenue estimates and issuing bullish guidance, the stock initially broke lower and subsequently generated a 17.55% MFE for the bearish setup. Price action can sometimes overpower contradictory fundamentals over shorter trading horizons.

How important is technical breakout confirmation after earnings?

Technical confirmation appears particularly useful for bullish post-earnings setups. Bullish trades with 4-hour breakout confirmation averaged 11.72% MFE, while those producing a daily breakout recorded a 61.1% +9% target rate, compared with 51.6% across all bullish setups.

What is the most accurate indicator for post-earnings momentum?

Our data does not point to a single indicator such as RSI or MACD. Instead, the strongest signal has been confluence between price action, fundamentals, and technical structure. Initial move size, EPS/revenue alignment, guidance, and multi-timeframe breakout confirmation can collectively provide more information about a setup than relying on any one standalone momentum indicator.

Can you predict whether a stock will continue moving after earnings?

No setup can reliably predict what a stock will do next. The purpose of our data is to identify characteristics associated with higher-probability post-earnings momentum, not to predict individual trades with certainty. Even our strongest bullish subset currently contains only nine completed trades, so the results should be treated as developing evidence rather than a guaranteed trading formula.

What is the biggest mistake when identifying post-earnings momentum?

One mistake is assuming that the biggest initial earnings move must be the strongest setup. Our data has shown almost the opposite: 20%+ initial moves produced weaker continuation metrics than several less-extreme groups. For post-earnings momentum trading, the more useful question may be not “How far has the stock already moved?” but “How much momentum is still left to trade?”

References

Laforest, J. (2026). 2026 post-earnings momentum tracker [Data set]. Paper Trading Journal. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18PiLlOVgwIWv2zTIOfxshPx35mEXnnPE9RcW9aKeQ_8/edit?usp=sharing

Laforest, J. (2026). Post-earnings momentum trading strategy. Paper Trading Journal. https://papertradingjournal.com/post-earnings-momentum-strategy/

Paper Trading Journal. (2026). Post-earnings momentum case studies. Paper Trading Journal. https://papertradingjournal.com/stock-chart-setup-case-studies/

Data disclosure

All statistics presented in this article are based on 109 completed post-earnings momentum setups collected and analyzed by Paper Trading Journal in 2026. The dataset tracks initial hourly earnings moves, fundamental results, technical breakouts, MFE, MAE, target/stop outcomes, and next-day price action.