This was one of those trades where everything went wrong—and the worst part is, it never should have been traded the way I traded it. In the following ASTS trade review, I explain what I did, what went wrong, and why I should never make these types of mistakes again.
The catalyst for ASTS was unexpected: Blue Origin mistakenly placed a satellite into the wrong orbit, which immediately sent shockwaves through AST SpaceMobile (ASTS).
When I pulled up the chart, the stock was already down about 16% from the previous day’s close. That’s a significant move—exactly the kind of volatility that can create opportunity.
At the same time:
- Price was testing and breaking below the pre-market low
- There was a clear hourly breakdown of support
On the surface, this looked like a potential short for continuation. But I ignored that this was only an hourly breakdown and there was no confirmation on higher timeframes like the 4-hour or daily.
That immediately drops this from an A+ setup… to a B- at best.
Still tradable? Maybe. High probability? Not even close.
Mistake #1: Oversizing Right Out of the Gate
This is where things really started to unravel. I shorted 100 shares at $72.50, putting me into a $7,200 position. That’s completely outside my post-earnings momentum system.
My rule is clear:
- $1,000 per trade
Which means this should have been 13–14 shares max. Instead, I sized this like it was a top-tier setup. That one decision completely changed the psychology of the trade.
Now instead of managing risk, I was managing fear.
Mistake #2: Ignoring My Entry Rules
Almost immediately after entering, the trade moved against me. And this is where the second mistake becomes obvious… I didn’t wait for the hourly candle to close.
Had I followed my own system, I would have seen:
- A full hourly reversal
- Price closing near $75
- Back inside the pre-market range
That’s not a short signal—that’s a warning. At this point, I was down about $250 unrealized. And here’s the key: I should have closed the trade immediately. Not because the stock couldn’t go lower—but because I had already broken my process.
Mistake #3: Emotional Trading & Overtrading
Instead of stepping away, I did the exact opposite. I started flipping:
- Long → Short → Long → Short → Long
This is one of the fastest ways to destroy an account.
And it made even less sense given the context:
- This isn’t a fundamentally broken company
- Revenue is growing
- Strong retail interest
- The stock ran from ~$20 to $125 in under a year
Yes, the news mattered. Yes, there was downside risk. Yes, the trade could have worked…
But this wasn’t a clean, high-probability breakdown. And yet I traded it like it was.
What Should Have Happened
If I had followed my system, this trade could have played out very differently:
- Position size: ~$1,000 (13–14 shares)
- Entry: After hourly candle confirmation
- Bias shift: Flip long if price reclaimed pre-market highs + 9 EMA
Even if the trade still lost money, it would have been:
- Controlled
- Structured
- Reviewable
Instead, it turned into chaos.
Final Result
I closed the day down $476 on a single ticker. Not because the setup was terrible—but because my execution was.
Had I shorted with a proper sized and just left it, I still would have only taken a moderate loss.
But had I traded this properly, recognized the ORB breakout and gotten long… I could have netted a solid +8% intraday reversal instead of taking a massive loss.
The Real Lesson: Psychology > Strategy
Trades like this are a reminder of something most traders underestimate:
👉 Trading success isn’t just about analysis—it’s about discipline.
I correctly identified:
- The catalyst
- The momentum
- The key levels
But none of that mattered because I failed to:
- Follow my position sizing rules
- Wait for confirmation
- Control my emotions
And once those break, your trading psychology follows.
Trader Takeaway
This wasn’t a bad market. This wasn’t bad luck. This was a process failure.
And those are the most valuable trades to review—because they’re the easiest to fix.
If you want to go deeper:
- Explore the Trading Statistics Hub to understand how different sectors behave across market cycles
- Study real setups inside the Trade Reviews section
- Learn the framework behind high-probability setups in the Post-Earnings Momentum Strategy
This is how you turn raw market data into repeatable trading edge.
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