I tested 10 A+ post-earnings setups… and the results exposed my biggest problem as a trader. Under ideal conditions, my system achieved a 90% win rate, a 1.86 R:R, and $1,026 in total gains.

I write a lot of trade reviews that are based on my post-earnings momentum strategy, where I trade directionally based on the momentum that shows up AFTER companies announce their quarterly earnings.

Over the last few years, I realized this system can work. And when it does, it often delivers strong returns. The problem is executing the system properly, without overthinking, without taking outsized losses, and without fudging up the data.

So I decided to put my system to the test to get a better idea of how it works.

I analyzed 10 of my best post-earnings setups… and the results were far better than my actual trading performance.

That’s when it hit me — the problem wasn’t the strategy… It was me!

The Dataset

Before we take a closer look at these trades and how they played out, I need to say that this wasn’t a full backtest. It was a focused look at ideal conditions and the way that I SHOULD be trading.

These were also not the only trades I’ve taken recently. These are A+ setups only.

You might say this is “cherry picked data.” But I’m not trying to skew the results. I’m simply trying to show that when you follow rules-based trading systems, win rates, risk-to-reward ratios, and overall results should stabilize if the system is strong enough.

I’ll also mention that my results were far from this good…

Either way, the criteria I used for this dataset were:

• Earnings catalyst (stocks moving after earnings announcements)
• ~10% hourly move (up or down)
• Measured move into next session close (from the close of the earnings hourly candle to the close of the following session)

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Again, this isn’t a full backtest.

But it does go to show that my post-earnings momentum strategy has some validity when traded properly.

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The Results

• 10 trades
• 90% win rate
• $1,026 total gain
• 1.86 R:R

Had I followed my rules perfectly, using $1,000 risk per setup, had I not traded lower quality setups, had I stuck to my system, I could have closed out 10 trades with more than $1,000 in realized gains.

The Real Insight – My Edge Was Real. My Execution Wasn’t.

It’s true… there’s been a huge disconnect between how powerful this trading system is, and what my results have been.

In fact, over the last couple of months of paper trading, I’ve taken my $10,000 account down to about $3,000 through 200+ trades.

But when I look at this mini backtest, it tells me that my system works. I just need to get better at following it.

Here are a few reasons why my results haven’t been as good as the results from this study.

• I often trade low-quality setups.
• I often enter too early (before hourly close)
• I sometimes chase after moves have already started
• I cut winners too soon or exit for invalid reasons
• I let losers get too big
• I oversize and make emotional decisions

When I put it all into perspective, this study clearly shows me that the edge wasn’t the problem. Execution was.

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If you want to learn more about my system and how some of these trades played out in real time, check out my Trade Review page. Here’s a look at some of my recent A+ setups.

Just remember: A clearly defined strategy doesn’t just give you entries — it gives you discipline.

But only if you actually follow it.